Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 5 Boston Bruins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 59.6%

BOS: 40.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.04

BOS: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 36%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	VGK	BOS
Season SV%	0.895	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	24	19	5	79.2%	2.43	3	-2.57
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	37	31	6	83.8%	6.01	8	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VGK at home vs BOS: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	BOS 4 - 3 VGK	BOS	VGK
2025-10-16	VGK 6 - 5 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-03-20	VGK 5 - 1 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-02-08	BOS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-02-29	BOS 5 - 4 VGK	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	2	0.85
1	BOS	14	2	0.98
2	VGK	20	3	2.47
2	BOS	15	1	1.00
3	VGK	18	3	2.68
3	BOS	12	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown