Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-10-16 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 59.3%

PIT: 40.7%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.39

PIT: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 47%

Over 6.5: 32%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	LAK	PIT
Season SV%	0.901	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.70	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Anton Forsberg	26	22	4	84.6%	3.86	5	-0.14
PIT	Arturs Silovs	32	30	2	93.8%	2.95	3	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • LAK at home vs PIT: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-09	PIT 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-10-16	LAK 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	LAK
2025-01-20	LAK 1 - 5 PIT	PIT	LAK
2024-12-17	PIT 3 - 2 LAK	PIT	LAK
2024-02-18	PIT 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	14	1	0.77
1	PIT	11	0	0.83
2	LAK	14	1	1.01
2	PIT	11	0	0.55
3	LAK	16	1	1.17
3	PIT	16	5	2.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown