Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-10-17 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 39.6%

TBL: 60.4%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.83

TBL: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	DET	TBL
Season SV%	0.893	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	32	31	1	96.9%	2.93	1	1.93
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	29	2	93.5%	2.90	0	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	TBL
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	15	0	0.78
1	TBL	9	0	0.23
2	DET	18	0	1.12
2	TBL	11	0	0.59
3	DET	11	0	0.72
3	TBL	28	1	1.93
4	DET	3	0	0.28
4	TBL	2	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.8 - 2.7