Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-10-17 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

Win Probability

DET: 52.4%

TBL: 47.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.24

TBL: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DET at home vs TBL: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	15	0	0.78
1	TBL	9	0	0.23
2	DET	18	0	1.12
2	TBL	11	0	0.59
3	DET	11	0	0.72
3	TBL	28	1	1.93
4	DET	3	0	0.28
4	TBL	2	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0