Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-17 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 1 Minnesota Wild

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 56.2%

MIN: 43.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.86

MIN: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 36%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	WSH	MIN
Season SV%	0.913	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	14	13	1	92.9%	1.68	1	0.68
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	45	40	5	88.9%	4.18	5	-0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs MIN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	MIN 5 - 0 WSH	MIN	WSH
2025-10-17	WSH 5 - 1 MIN	WSH	WSH
2025-03-27	MIN 4 - 2 WSH	MIN	MIN
2025-01-02	WSH 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WSH
2024-01-23	MIN 5 - 3 WSH	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	16	2	1.26
1	MIN	6	0	0.10
2	WSH	16	0	0.90
2	MIN	9	1	0.81
3	WSH	24	3	2.02
3	MIN	13	0	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown