Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 0 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 48.2%

FLA: 51.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.89

FLA: 3.31

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	BUF	FLA
Season SV%	0.906	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	32	32	0	100.0%	3.52	1	3.52
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	31	28	3	90.3%	2.52	0	-0.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • BUF at home vs FLA: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-27	FLA 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	FLA
2026-02-02	FLA 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-12	BUF 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-10-18	BUF 3 - 0 FLA	BUF	FLA
2025-04-12	FLA 3 - 2 BUF	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	14	0	0.80
1	FLA	19	0	1.36
2	BUF	18	0	1.29
2	FLA	14	0	1.00
3	BUF	14	0	0.42
3	FLA	23	1	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown