New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 63.7%

NYI: 36.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.29

NYI: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs NYI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.94
1	NYI	12	1	0.89
2	OTT	20	1	1.37
2	NYI	13	2	1.49
3	OTT	8	0	0.50
3	NYI	12	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 4 - 5 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0