New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 53.7%

NYR: 46.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.25

NYR: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • MTL at home vs NYR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	MTL
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	0.98
1	NYR	9	1	0.68
2	MTL	12	0	0.64
2	NYR	14	0	0.88
3	MTL	11	1	0.54
3	NYR	17	2	1.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.1