Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 1 Dallas Stars

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 64.1%

DAL: 35.9%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.45

DAL: 2.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	STL	DAL
Season SV%	0.869	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	19	18	1	94.7%	1.86	1	0.86
DAL	Jake Oettinger	22	19	3	86.4%	3.04	3	0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • STL at home vs DAL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL
2025-03-02	DAL 6 - 3 STL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	8	1	0.75
1	DAL	9	0	0.58
2	STL	17	1	1.33
2	DAL	6	0	0.53
3	STL	8	1	0.97
3	DAL	12	1	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown