Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-10-18 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 0 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 30.5%

PIT: 69.5%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.15

PIT: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Stat	SJS	PIT
Season SV%	0.895	0.892
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	3.12

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	27	24	3	88.9%	2.97	2	-0.03
PIT	Tristan Jarry	31	31	0	100.0%	2.35	0	2.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs PIT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	PIT 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	PIT
2025-10-18	SJS 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-27	SJS 2 - 1 PIT	SJS	PIT
2024-11-16	PIT 4 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT
2024-03-14	PIT 6 - 3 SJS	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	0	0.83
1	PIT	20	1	1.26
2	SJS	16	0	0.71
2	PIT	10	0	0.58
3	SJS	15	0	0.81
3	PIT	8	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown