Vancouver Canucks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-19 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 73.1%

VAN: 26.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.83

VAN: 3.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs VAN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	VAN 4 - 3 WSH	VAN	VAN
2025-10-19	WSH 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	WSH
2025-01-25	VAN 2 - 1 WSH	VAN	VAN
2025-01-08	WSH 2 - 1 VAN	WSH	WSH
2024-03-16	VAN 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	0	0.74
1	VAN	17	1	1.26
2	WSH	22	1	1.80
2	VAN	9	0	0.74
3	WSH	27	1	1.86
3	VAN	9	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 73.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.8 - 3.8