Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-10-19 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 47.8%

EDM: 52.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.04

EDM: 3.63

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Stat	DET	EDM
Season SV%	0.893	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.81

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	18	16	2	88.9%	1.80	1	-0.20
EDM	Stuart Skinner	25	21	4	84.0%	2.73	2	-1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs EDM: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	EDM 4 - 1 DET	EDM	EDM
2025-10-19	DET 4 - 2 EDM	DET	EDM
2025-01-30	EDM 2 - 3 DET	DET	EDM
2024-10-27	DET 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-02-13	EDM 8 - 4 DET	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	12	0	0.77
1	EDM	6	0	0.28
2	DET	16	1	0.88
2	EDM	13	0	0.88
3	DET	11	1	1.09
3	EDM	12	1	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown