Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-10-20 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

MTL: 61.1%

BUF: 38.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.48

BUF: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 38%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	21	1	1.62
1	BUF	15	1	1.03
2	MTL	8	0	0.19
2	BUF	15	1	1.25
3	MTL	18	2	1.97
3	BUF	21	5	2.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2