Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-10-20 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 53.2%

WPG: 46.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.69

WPG: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	CGY	WPG
Season SV%	0.901	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	27	25	2	92.6%	3.25	3	1.25
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	33	32	1	97.0%	2.82	0	1.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs WPG: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.84
1	WPG	12	0	0.71
2	CGY	18	0	1.20
2	WPG	15	2	1.88
3	CGY	16	0	0.78
3	WPG	7	1	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown