New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-21 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 54.6%

NJD: 45.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.52

NJD: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	TOR	NJD
Season SV%	0.884	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	35	30	5	85.7%	3.80	5	-1.20
NJD	Jake Allen	25	23	2	92.0%	2.95	3	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs NJD: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	NJD
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	NJD
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	NJD
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	1	0.63
1	NJD	11	1	0.94
2	TOR	16	1	1.25
2	NJD	21	2	1.67
3	TOR	14	1	1.06
3	NJD	14	2	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown