Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-10-21 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 55.2%

EDM: 44.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.35

EDM: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Stat	OTT	EDM
Season SV%	0.881	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.81

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	25	22	3	88.0%	2.34	0	-0.66
EDM	Stuart Skinner	21	19	2	90.5%	1.47	0	-0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs EDM: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	EDM 5 - 4 OTT	EDM	EDM
2025-10-21	OTT 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-12-22	EDM 3 - 1 OTT	EDM	EDM
2024-11-19	OTT 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-03-24	OTT 5 - 3 EDM	OTT	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	OTT	8	0.40
1	EDM	8	0.69
2	OTT	18	0.85
2	EDM	7	0.71
3	OTT	5	0.22
3	EDM	15	0.61
4	OTT	0	0.00
4	EDM	4	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9