San Jose Sharks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-10-21 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 75.2%

SJS: 24.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 4.30

SJS: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	NYI	SJS
Season SV%	0.910	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	36	33	3	91.7%	3.94	5	0.94
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	27	23	4	85.2%	4.06	5	0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • NYI at home vs SJS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	SJS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-10-21	NYI 4 - 3 SJS	NYI	NYI
2025-03-08	SJS 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-18	NYI 4 - 1 SJS	NYI	NYI
2024-03-07	SJS 2 - 7 NYI	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	10	0	0.49
1	SJS	19	3	1.82
2	NYI	21	3	1.87
2	SJS	18	1	1.23
3	NYI	14	2	1.70
3	SJS	12	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 75.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown