Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-10-21 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 4 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 38.3%

FLA: 61.7%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.09

FLA: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	BOS	FLA
Season SV%	0.903	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	23	19	4	82.6%	3.26	3	-0.74
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	31	28	3	90.3%	2.53	1	-0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • BOS at home vs FLA: 8-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	FLA 2 - 1 BOS	FLA	FLA
2026-02-04	FLA 5 - 4 BOS	FLA	FLA
2025-10-21	BOS 3 - 4 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-03-11	BOS 3 - 2 FLA	BOS	BOS
2025-01-11	FLA 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	0	0.51
1	FLA	15	1	1.17
2	BOS	18	0	0.86
2	FLA	11	1	0.67
3	BOS	16	1	1.17
3	FLA	10	1	1.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown