Colorado Avalanche at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-10-21 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 3 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 44.5%

COL: 55.5%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.09

COL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	UTA	COL
Season SV%	0.895	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	33	30	3	90.9%	2.30	0	-0.70
COL	Scott Wedgewood	33	29	4	87.9%	2.97	3	-1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • UTA at home vs COL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	UTA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2025-12-23	COL 1 - 0 UTA	COL	COL
2025-10-21	UTA 4 - 3 COL	UTA	COL
2025-10-09	COL 2 - 1 UTA	COL	COL
2024-12-27	UTA 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	12	0	0.76
1	COL	17	0	0.99
2	UTA	17	2	1.31
2	COL	11	0	0.56
3	UTA	14	1	0.81
3	COL	17	0	0.76
4	UTA	1	0	0.09
4	COL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 4 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3