Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-10-22 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 54.0%

MTL: 46.0%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.64

MTL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	CGY	MTL
Season SV%	0.901	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	26	2	92.9%	2.95	3	0.95
MTL	Jakub Dobes	37	36	1	97.3%	2.11	0	1.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs MTL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	CGY
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	MTL
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.29
1	MTL	10	1	1.09
2	CGY	24	0	1.12
2	MTL	11	1	0.74
3	CGY	11	0	0.69
3	MTL	13	1	0.97
4	CGY	0	0	0.00
4	MTL	1	0	0.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2