Anaheim Ducks at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-10-23 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 7 Anaheim Ducks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 45.7%

ANA: 54.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.84

ANA: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

ANA

Petr Mrazek - 3-4-0 | 0.865 SV% | 3.78 GAA

Stat	BOS	ANA
Season SV%	0.882	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	3.78

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	30	23	7	76.7%	4.01	3	-2.99
ANA	Petr Mrazek	42	37	5	88.1%	3.83	5	-1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BOS at home vs ANA: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-19	ANA 4 - 3 BOS	ANA	ANA
2025-10-23	BOS 5 - 7 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-03-26	ANA 6 - 2 BOS	ANA	ANA
2025-02-22	BOS 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	BOS
2023-10-26	BOS 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	24	4	2.38
1	ANA	20	0	1.10
2	BOS	16	1	0.85
2	ANA	14	0	0.84
3	BOS	16	0	0.59
3	ANA	14	3	2.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown