Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-10-23 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 51.6%

PHI: 48.4%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.48

PHI: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	OTT	PHI
Season SV%	0.881	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	22	1	95.7%	2.23	0	1.23
PHI	Dan Vladar	33	31	2	93.9%	2.07	1	0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • OTT at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	PHI 1 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-08	PHI 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-23	OTT 2 - 1 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-04-13	OTT 4 - 3 PHI	OTT	OTT
2025-03-11	PHI 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	16	0	0.68
1	PHI	11	0	0.77
2	OTT	10	0	0.71
2	PHI	12	0	0.81
3	OTT	14	1	0.68
3	PHI	11	0	0.66

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown