Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-10-23 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 55.4%
CHI: 44.6%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.22
CHI: 3.43
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 69%
Over 6.5: 56%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
CHI
Spencer Knight - 19-25-11 | 0.902 SV% | 2.82 GAA
| Stat | TBL | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.909 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.851 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.909 | 0.935 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.63 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TBL at home vs CHI: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | CHI 1 - 2 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-23 | TBL 2 - 3 CHI | CHI | TBL |
| 2025-01-28 | TBL 1 - 4 CHI | CHI | TBL |
| 2025-01-24 | CHI 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2023-11-16 | CHI 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | CHI |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks
Expected: 3.2 - 3.4
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