Pittsburgh Penguins at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-10-23 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 55.2%

PIT: 44.8%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.26

PIT: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Stat	FLA	PIT
Season SV%	0.888	0.892
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	3.12

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	17	12	5	70.6%	2.88	3	-2.12
PIT	Tristan Jarry	37	34	3	91.9%	4.74	3	1.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • FLA at home vs PIT: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	13	1	0.71
1	PIT	14	0	0.39
2	FLA	22	0	1.32
2	PIT	10	1	0.77
3	FLA	26	2	2.71
3	PIT	10	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown