Utah Hockey Club at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-10-23 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 7 Utah Hockey Club

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 44.7%

UTA: 55.3%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.04

UTA: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	STL	UTA
Season SV%	0.901	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	25	18	7	72.0%	3.19	3	-3.81
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	20	16	4	80.0%	2.87	2	-1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • STL at home vs UTA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	UTA 3 - 5 STL	STL	UTA
2026-01-09	UTA 4 - 2 STL	UTA	UTA
2025-11-29	STL 1 - 0 UTA	STL	UTA
2025-10-23	STL 4 - 7 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-04-15	STL 6 - 1 UTA	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	5	0	0.31
1	UTA	16	2	1.41
2	STL	13	2	1.44
2	UTA	9	0	0.47
3	STL	13	0	1.12
3	UTA	10	1	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown