Carolina Hurricanes at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-10-23 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 45.7%

CAR: 54.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.09

CAR: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	COL	CAR
Season SV%	0.919	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	33	28	5	84.8%	3.75	3	-1.25
CAR	Frederik Andersen	51	47	4	92.2%	5.79	4	1.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • COL at home vs CAR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	CAR 3 - 5 COL	COL	CAR
2025-10-23	COL 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-12-05	CAR 5 - 3 COL	CAR	CAR
2024-11-09	COL 6 - 4 CAR	COL	COL
2024-02-08	CAR 5 - 2 COL	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	26	2	2.17
1	CAR	14	2	1.36
2	COL	22	1	1.58
2	CAR	7	0	0.24
3	COL	16	1	1.49
3	CAR	16	0	0.77
4	COL	5	0	0.32
4	CAR	4	0	0.38
5	COL	3	0	0.23
5	CAR	3	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 5 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2