Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-10-24 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 38.1%
TOR: 61.9%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.31
TOR: 3.32
Total Goals
Median: 7.7
Over 5.5: 77%
Over 6.5: 64%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | BUF | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.904 | 0.873 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | BUF 3 - 2 TOR | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-27 | TOR 4 - 7 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-10-25 | TOR 4 - 3 BUF | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-10-24 | BUF 5 - 3 TOR | BUF | TOR |
| 2025-04-15 | BUF 0 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.3 - 3.3
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.