Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-10-24 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 51.7%

TOR: 48.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.27

TOR: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	BUF	TOR
Season SV%	0.906	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	34	31	3	91.2%	3.05	2	0.05
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	30	25	5	83.3%	2.54	1	-2.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TOR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	0	0.85
1	TOR	12	0	1.06
2	BUF	15	1	0.88
2	TOR	15	0	0.48
3	BUF	14	0	0.82
3	TOR	18	2	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown