Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-10-24 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 5 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 52.3%

WSH: 47.7%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.71

WSH: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	CBJ	WSH
Season SV%	0.909	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	30	25	5	83.3%	4.87	7	-0.13
WSH	Logan Thompson	35	34	1	97.1%	4.57	4	3.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • CBJ at home vs WSH: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CBJ 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	CBJ
2025-12-07	WSH 2 - 0 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-11-24	WSH 5 - 1 CBJ	WSH	WSH
2025-10-24	CBJ 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	CBJ
2025-04-13	WSH 1 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	19	1	1.33
1	WSH	17	1	1.45
2	CBJ	17	2	1.47
2	WSH	7	0	0.33
3	CBJ	18	1	1.77
3	WSH	20	6	3.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown