Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-10-24 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 3 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 55.8%

CGY: 44.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.52

CGY: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 35%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	WPG	CGY
Season SV%	0.880	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.49	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Eric Comrie	33	30	3	90.9%	3.09	0	0.09
CGY	Dustin Wolf	32	27	5	84.4%	3.80	2	-1.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs CGY: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	11	0	0.70
1	CGY	12	0	0.83
2	WPG	19	0	1.29
2	CGY	10	0	0.68
3	WPG	15	2	1.81
3	CGY	22	0	1.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown