Colorado Avalanche at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 34.7%

COL: 65.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.94

COL: 3.56

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Stat	BOS	COL
Season SV%	0.903	0.919
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.13

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	33	31	2	93.9%	3.62	1	1.62
COL	Scott Wedgewood	19	16	3	84.2%	2.60	3	-0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs COL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-25	BOS 3 - 2 COL	BOS	COL
2025-10-18	COL 4 - 1 BOS	COL	COL
2025-01-25	BOS 3 - 1 COL	BOS	COL
2024-10-16	COL 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	COL
2024-01-18	BOS 5 - 2 COL	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	16	2	1.23
1	COL	13	1	1.13
2	BOS	10	0	0.64
2	COL	16	0	0.95
3	BOS	8	1	0.73
3	COL	20	0	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown