Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 60.4%

ANA: 39.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.07

ANA: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	TBL	ANA
Season SV%	0.894	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.83	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Jonas Johansson	40	37	3	92.5%	2.77	1	-0.23
ANA	Lukas Dostal	33	29	4	87.9%	4.95	6	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs ANA: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	ANA 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-25	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-16	TBL 4 - 3 ANA	TBL	TBL
2025-01-05	ANA 4 - 1 TBL	ANA	TBL
2024-03-24	ANA 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	2	1.17
1	ANA	18	0	1.34
2	TBL	18	1	1.33
2	ANA	17	0	0.80
3	TBL	24	3	2.45
3	ANA	14	1	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown