Utah Hockey Club at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 2 - 6 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 54.5%

UTA: 45.5%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.09

UTA: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	MIN	UTA
Season SV%	0.912	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	41	35	6	85.4%	4.97	3	-1.03
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	35	33	2	94.3%	3.55	1	1.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • MIN at home vs UTA: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	MIN 5 - 0 UTA	MIN	MIN
2026-02-27	UTA 5 - 2 MIN	UTA	UTA
2025-10-25	MIN 2 - 6 UTA	UTA	MIN
2025-02-27	UTA 6 - 1 MIN	UTA	UTA
2025-01-23	MIN 0 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	9	0	0.43
1	UTA	17	2	2.02
2	MIN	13	0	0.74
2	UTA	16	0	1.02
3	MIN	26	1	2.38
3	UTA	17	1	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown