Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 50.6%

BUF: 49.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.10

BUF: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.96
1	BUF	16	1	1.14
2	TOR	15	0	0.81
2	BUF	9	0	0.45
3	TOR	7	0	0.12
3	BUF	9	1	0.66
4	TOR	1	0	0.16
4	BUF	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2