Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 54.4%

CBJ: 45.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.35

CBJ: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Stat	PIT	CBJ
Season SV%	0.886	0.877
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	4.04

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	44	37	7	84.1%	7.18	7	0.18
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	33	27	6	81.8%	4.58	2	-1.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PIT at home vs CBJ: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2025-03-21	PIT 6 - 3 CBJ	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	9	0	0.43
1	CBJ	25	3	2.05
2	PIT	14	0	0.88
2	CBJ	13	0	0.69
3	PIT	20	0	1.27
3	CBJ	17	1	1.28
4	PIT	2	0	0.08
4	CBJ	4	0	0.46
5	PIT	3	2	1.93
5	CBJ	3	3	2.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 5 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2