Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 7 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 43.7%

OTT: 56.3%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.90

OTT: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	WSH	OTT
Season SV%	0.887	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.07	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	34	27	7	79.4%	4.80	3	-2.20
OTT	Linus Ullmark	13	12	1	92.3%	1.79	1	0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	WSH
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.47
1	OTT	12	2	1.30
2	WSH	8	0	0.58
2	OTT	18	1	2.35
3	WSH	11	1	0.74
3	OTT	15	0	1.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown