Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 34.6%

MTL: 65.4%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.87

MTL: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	VAN	MTL
Season SV%	0.885	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	24	20	4	83.3%	3.20	4	-0.80
MTL	Jakub Dobes	31	28	3	90.3%	2.74	1	-0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VAN at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MTL 6 - 3 VAN	MTL	MTL
2025-10-25	VAN 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-11	VAN 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	VAN
2025-01-06	MTL 5 - 4 VAN	MTL	MTL
2024-03-21	VAN 4 - 1 MTL	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	19	0	0.99
1	MTL	7	0	0.27
2	VAN	14	0	0.82
2	MTL	24	3	1.66
3	VAN	18	1	0.94
3	MTL	11	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown