Carolina Hurricanes at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 46.0%

CAR: 54.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.37

CAR: 3.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	DAL	CAR
Season SV%	0.907	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	26	2	92.9%	2.67	0	0.67
CAR	Brandon Bussi	34	31	3	91.2%	3.94	3	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs CAR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	CAR 6 - 3 DAL	CAR	CAR
2025-10-25	DAL 3 - 2 CAR	DAL	CAR
2025-01-21	DAL 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-11-25	CAR 6 - 4 DAL	CAR	CAR
2024-02-24	CAR 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	0	0.91
1	CAR	15	0	0.94
2	DAL	16	2	1.70
2	CAR	20	0	0.99
3	DAL	15	1	1.33
3	CAR	16	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown