Edmonton Oilers at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2025-10-25 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 38.5%

EDM: 61.5%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.42

EDM: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Stat	SEA	EDM
Season SV%	0.903	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.77	2.81

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Joey Daccord	33	31	2	93.9%	2.73	1	0.73
EDM	Stuart Skinner	23	20	3	87.0%	2.99	2	-0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • SEA at home vs EDM: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	EDM 3 - 0 SEA	EDM	EDM
2025-12-04	EDM 9 - 4 SEA	EDM	EDM
2025-11-29	SEA 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-25	SEA 3 - 2 EDM	SEA	EDM
2025-03-27	SEA 6 - 1 EDM	SEA	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	18	0	1.17
1	EDM	15	1	1.16
2	SEA	10	0	0.53
2	EDM	17	0	1.00
3	SEA	9	2	1.29
3	EDM	18	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown