Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-10-26 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 3 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 42.4%

COL: 57.6%

Expected Goals

NJD: 2.90

COL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

COL

Trent Miner - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	NJD	COL
Season SV%	0.912	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	24	21	3	87.5%	3.49	5	0.49
COL	Trent Miner	24	20	4	83.3%	2.74	3	-1.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • NJD at home vs COL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	COL 8 - 4 NJD	COL	COL
2025-10-26	NJD 4 - 3 COL	NJD	COL
2025-02-26	COL 5 - 1 NJD	COL	COL
2024-12-08	NJD 0 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2024-02-06	NJD 5 - 3 COL	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	17	1	0.98
1	COL	15	2	1.25
2	NJD	8	1	0.65
2	COL	22	1	1.31
3	NJD	13	1	0.83
3	COL	9	2	0.94
4	NJD	3	0	0.28
4	COL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 4 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1