Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-10-26 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)
🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 44.0%
VGK: 56.0%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.30
VGK: 3.51
Total Goals
Median: 8.3
Over 5.5: 84%
Over 6.5: 75%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | TBL | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.922 | — |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs VGK: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | VGK 3 - 6 TBL | TBL | VGK |
| 2025-10-26 | TBL 2 - 1 VGK | TBL | VGK |
| 2025-03-23 | VGK 4 - 2 TBL | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-10-17 | TBL 4 - 3 VGK | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-19 | VGK 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.8
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.3 - 3.5
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