Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-26 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 61.4%

VGK: 38.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.12

VGK: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	VGK
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	2	1.46
1	VGK	6	0	0.42
2	TBL	18	0	1.00
2	VGK	5	0	0.17
3	TBL	4	0	0.32
3	VGK	14	1	1.00
4	TBL	1	0	0.17
4	VGK	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4