Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-10-26 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 54.6%

VGK: 45.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.28

VGK: 3.45

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

VGK

Carl Lindbom - 0-3-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	TBL	VGK
Season SV%	0.913	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	19	18	1	94.7%	1.60	1	0.60
VGK	Carl Lindbom	28	26	2	92.9%	2.95	2	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs VGK: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-06	VGK 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	VGK
2025-10-26	TBL 2 - 1 VGK	TBL	TBL
2025-03-23	VGK 4 - 2 TBL	VGK	VGK
2024-10-17	TBL 4 - 3 VGK	TBL	TBL
2024-03-19	VGK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	16	2	1.46
1	VGK	6	0	0.42
2	TBL	18	0	1.00
2	VGK	5	0	0.17
3	TBL	4	0	0.32
3	VGK	14	1	1.00
4	TBL	1	0	0.17
4	VGK	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.4