San Jose Sharks at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-10-26 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 5 - 6 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 57.7%

SJS: 42.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.34

SJS: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	MIN	SJS
Season SV%	0.928	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	25	19	6	76.0%	3.29	3	-2.71
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	33	28	5	84.8%	3.67	0	-1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs SJS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	SJS 4 - 3 MIN	SJS	MIN
2025-11-11	MIN 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	MIN
2025-10-26	MIN 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	MIN
2025-04-09	MIN 8 - 7 SJS	MIN	MIN
2025-01-11	SJS 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	14	0	0.96
1	SJS	13	1	1.30
2	MIN	13	0	0.79
2	SJS	12	2	1.23
3	MIN	26	0	1.49
3	SJS	6	0	0.64
4	MIN	4	0	0.43
4	SJS	1	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 5 - 6 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.3 - 2.5