Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2025-10-26 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 38.5%

EDM: 61.5%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.95

EDM: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Stat	VAN	EDM
Season SV%	0.905	0.874
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.72	3.69

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	29	26	3	89.7%	2.87	1	-0.13
EDM	Calvin Pickard	27	23	4	85.2%	2.52	2	-1.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VAN at home vs EDM: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	EDM 6 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM
2026-01-17	VAN 0 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 EDM	VAN	EDM
2025-10-11	EDM 3 - 1 VAN	EDM	EDM
2025-01-23	EDM 6 - 2 VAN	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	11	1	0.67
1	EDM	18	0	1.15
2	VAN	15	0	1.00
2	EDM	14	0	0.88
3	VAN	13	0	0.62
3	EDM	12	1	0.74
4	VAN	1	1	0.22
4	EDM	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9