St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-10-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 43.7%

STL: 56.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.03

STL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	PIT	STL
Season SV%	0.892	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.12	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	28	25	3	89.3%	3.12	0	0.12
STL	Joel Hofer	26	20	6	76.9%	3.42	3	-2.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs STL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	STL 7 - 5 PIT	STL	PIT
2025-10-27	PIT 6 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2025-04-03	STL 5 - 4 PIT	STL	STL
2025-03-13	PIT 5 - 3 STL	PIT	STL
2023-12-30	PIT 4 - 2 STL	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.94
1	STL	19	0	1.59
2	PIT	10	1	1.02
2	STL	12	0	0.76
3	PIT	11	2	1.47
3	STL	14	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown