Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 69.5%

PIT: 30.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.47

PIT: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	PHI	PIT
Season SV%	0.868	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	29	26	3	89.7%	3.46	3	0.46
PIT	Arturs Silovs	37	33	4	89.2%	5.08	3	1.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs PIT: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	PHI 0 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	18	1	1.19
1	PIT	15	1	0.91
2	PHI	20	0	1.36
2	PIT	6	1	0.53
3	PHI	9	0	0.49
3	PIT	12	0	0.53
4	PHI	3	0	0.23
4	PIT	4	0	0.42
5	PHI	3	2	1.82
5	PIT	3	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2