Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 49.3%

CGY: 50.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.34

CGY: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs CGY: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	CGY
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	CGY
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	CGY
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	0	1.34
1	CGY	12	0	0.79
2	TOR	19	1	1.27
2	CGY	14	0	0.98
3	TOR	13	1	1.28
3	CGY	13	2	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 4 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2