Vegas Golden Knights at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 62.3%

VGK: 37.7%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.48

VGK: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	CAR	VGK
Season SV%	0.865	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	35	29	6	82.9%	5.70	8	-0.30
VGK	Akira Schmid	24	21	3	87.5%	1.69	0	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • CAR at home vs VGK: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-06-14	VGK 0 - 3 CAR	CAR	VGK
2026-06-11	CAR 4 - 2 VGK	CAR	CAR
2026-06-09	VGK 3 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-06-06	VGK 5 - 4 CAR	VGK	CAR
2026-06-04	CAR 4 - 3 VGK	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	12	0	0.26
1	VGK	9	0	0.58
2	CAR	9	0	0.54
2	VGK	27	4	2.58
3	CAR	17	0	0.89
3	VGK	12	4	2.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown