Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 42.5%

TBL: 57.5%

Expected Goals

NSH: 2.82

TBL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	NSH	TBL
Season SV%	0.897	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.93	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	32	27	5	84.4%	6.00	8	1.00
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	20	18	2	90.0%	1.92	0	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • NSH at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-28	NSH 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-29	NSH 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-28	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2023-12-07	NSH 5 - 1 TBL	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	10	0	0.88
1	TBL	18	3	1.42
2	NSH	5	0	0.20
2	TBL	17	2	1.90
3	NSH	11	0	0.84
3	TBL	10	3	2.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown