Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions
2025-10-28 • Bridgestone Arena
Nashville Predators 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NSH: 54.2%
TBL: 45.8%
Expected Goals
NSH: 3.88
TBL: 2.66
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NSH
Juuse Saros - 21-17-5 | 0.892 SV% | 3.20 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | NSH | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.897 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.871 | 0.900 |
| GAA | 2.93 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NSH at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | NSH 2 - 5 TBL | TBL | NSH |
| 2024-11-29 | NSH 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | NSH |
| 2024-10-28 | TBL 3 - 2 NSH | TBL | TBL |
| 2023-12-07 | NSH 5 - 1 TBL | NSH | NSH |
| 2023-10-10 | TBL 5 - 3 NSH | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:31 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:37 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:33 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:07 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:54 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:58 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:05 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Nashville Predators 2 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.9 - 2.7