Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 59.3%

WPG: 40.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.28

WPG: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	MIN	WPG
Season SV%	0.912	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	21	17	4	81.0%	2.30	1	-1.70
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	32	3	91.4%	3.44	3	0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • MIN at home vs WPG: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	MIN 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	MIN
2025-12-27	WPG 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WPG
2025-11-23	WPG 0 - 3 MIN	MIN	WPG
2025-10-28	MIN 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	MIN
2024-12-21	WPG 5 - 0 MIN	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	23	1	1.38
1	WPG	13	0	0.72
2	MIN	18	2	1.44
2	WPG	11	0	0.82
3	MIN	14	0	0.61
3	WPG	12	1	0.64
4	MIN	0	0	0.00
4	WPG	1	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2