Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 53.9%

DET: 46.1%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.29

DET: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	STL	DET
Season SV%	0.869	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	20	15	5	75.0%	3.13	3	-1.87
DET	John Gibson	22	20	2	90.9%	1.87	1	-0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • STL at home vs DET: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	STL 2 - 5 DET	DET	STL
2025-10-25	DET 6 - 4 STL	DET	DET
2025-04-01	STL 2 - 1 DET	STL	STL
2024-12-23	DET 0 - 4 STL	STL	DET
2024-02-24	DET 6 - 1 STL	DET	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	10	1	0.60
1	DET	16	0	0.66
2	STL	17	0	1.11
2	DET	11	1	1.23
3	STL	5	0	0.16
3	DET	11	2	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown