Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 0 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 51.5%

WSH: 48.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.05

WSH: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	DAL	WSH
Season SV%	0.907	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	24	24	0	100.0%	2.81	1	2.81
WSH	Logan Thompson	19	18	1	94.7%	3.11	2	2.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs WSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	0	0.59
1	WSH	10	0	0.41
2	DAL	7	0	0.49
2	WSH	18	1	1.38
3	DAL	12	2	2.03
3	WSH	13	0	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown