Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 0 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

DAL: 51.3%

WSH: 48.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.94

WSH: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs WSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	0	0.59
1	WSH	10	0	0.41
2	DAL	7	0	0.49
2	WSH	18	1	1.38
3	DAL	12	2	2.03
3	WSH	13	0	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 0 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 2.9