Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-10-29 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 58.7%

TOR: 41.3%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.42

TOR: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

TOR

C. Primeau

Stat	CBJ	TOR
Season SV%	0.877	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.04	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	36	33	3	91.7%	3.80	2	0.80
TOR	C. Primeau	24	18	6	75.0%	2.48	3	-3.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • CBJ at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	TOR
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	12	1	0.89
1	TOR	12	0	0.51
2	CBJ	10	2	1.10
2	TOR	25	1	1.79
3	CBJ	14	0	0.49
3	TOR	15	1	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown